GGL Issues Warning Against Participation in Illegal Prediction Markets

The Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL) has issued a stark warning against participation in so-called society bets (Gesellschaftswetten), including entertainment wagers offered on platforms such as Polymarket. The regulator confirms these paid betting offerings are not licensable under German law and therefore illegal.

Increased Media Coverage Prompts WarningThe GGL reports registering increased media coverage of society bets in recent weeks and months, including wagers on the outcome of the Ukraine war. This growing public visibility has prompted the authority to proactively warn consumers about the legal situation and associated risks.

What Are Society Bets?Society bets cover events from public or social life, including:

Political electionsCourt verdictsNatural disastersSocial eventsOther non-sporting developmentsThe GGL emphasizes these formats are particularly susceptible to manipulation as they frequently rely on unclear, subjective, or influenceable outcomes.

Legal Position Under German LawUnder Section 3(1) sentence 4 in conjunction with Section 4(5) of the Interstate Gambling Treaty 2021 (GlüStV 2021), such wagers cannot be licensed due to high manipulation risks. German legislators have exclusively permitted bets on defined sporting events with verifiable results and clear rules.

All other types of betting are prohibited. Operating, facilitating, participating in, or advertising such illegal bets constitutes a criminal offense.

Compliance ResourcesConsumers can verify licensed gambling providers via the official whitelist at www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/whitelist. The GGL's FAQ section addresses key questions including how to identify illegal online gambling, penalties for participation, and which gambling types are legal in Germany.